Simulation experiments comparing alternative process formulations using a factorial design

This paper reviews methods for exploring the differences between alternative equations in complex ecosystem models. A factorial design is proposed as a method for exposing possible interactions between equation forms in their effect on model output as well as to clarify differences between the main candidate equations. A number of display methods arising from statistical analysis are used including normal Q-Q plots, linear rank plots and interaction diagrams. The methods were illustrated using a complex ecosystem model of Lake Ontario. We found the methods effective at illustrating major differences between equations although several difficulties arose due to the complexity of the models and the diffuse nature of the data supporting model validation. Questions of the method for standardization of equation forms so that the compared equations are in some way analogous, are important. These methods are probably most useful in cases where the data are of sufficient quality to indicate not only how different equation forms affect model output but also which are to be preferred.     

The prenatal detection of a familial pericentric inversion of chromosome 19

A familial pericentric inversion of chromosome 19 was detected prenatally in a young primagravida. As far as the authors are aware there are no previous published reports of this rare abnormality being ascertained in this manner. The problems of counselling such a family are considered.     

Pseudomosaicism,true mosaicism,and maternal cell contamination in amniotic fluid processed with in situ culture and robotic harvesting

This study was designed to test the usefulness of the common definitions for maternal cell contamination, true mosaicism, and pseudomosaicism for amniotic fluid specimens processed by in situ culture and robotic harvesting. We prospectively studied 4309 consecutive amniotic fluid specimens processed with these methods and found that 0.84 per cent had maternal cell contamination, 0.28 per cent had true mosaicism, and 5.4 per cent had pseudomosaicism. Although the frequencies of maternal cell contamination and true mosaicism were comparable to those in similar published studies, the frequency of pseudomosaicism was more than twice as high as that in previous reports. This finding is most likely not due to the method, but rather to a more accurate estimate of the actual frequency of pseudomosaicism in amniotic fluid cultures than reported heretofore. Follow-up clinical information was available on 72 per cent of the cases. In three cases of true mosaicism involving structural anomalies, the results of cytogenetic follow-up studies on the neonates were normal. None of the pseudomosaic cases involving trisomy 8, 13, 18, or 21; triple X; or monosomy X were associated with newborns who had birth defects.     

How colony growth affects forager intrusion between neighboring harvester ant colonies

Summary Colonies of the harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus, adjust the direction and length of foraging trails in response to the foraging behavior of their conspecific neighbors. In the absence of any interaction with its neighbor, a mature colony expands its foraging range at a rate of 0.85 ± 0.15 m per day. Exclusion experiments show that if a colony is prevented from using its foraging trails, the neighbors of that colony will enter its foraging range within 10 days. Exclusion experiments were performed with three age classes of colonies: young (1 year old), intermediate (3–4 years old), and old (5 years old or more). Colonies 3–4 years old are most likely to expand foraging ranges, and to retain newly-gained areas. To examine the relation of colony age (in years) and colony size (in numbers of workers), colonies of known age were excavated. Colonies increase greatly in size in years 3 and 4. Foraging area may be of greater current or prospective value for younger, smaller, quickly growing colonies than for older, larger ones of stable size. Correspondence to the second address     

Effects of water motion on propagule release from algae with complex life histories

Reproductive marine algae with complex life histories may respond differently to water motion depending upon whether the spore-producing or gamete-producing phase is considered. Two such species, the kelp Alaria esculenta (L.) Greville (Phaeophyceae) and Ulva lactuca L. (Chlorophyta), were examined experimentally in the laboratory. The kelp was collected in April–June 2000 and U. lactuca was collected in July–August 2000, from four intertidal habitats at Schoodic Point, Maine, USA. Orbital shakers were used to generate water motion. Sporophylls of A. esculenta released more zoospores under shaken versus calm conditions, whereas fewer antheridia on the microscopic male gametophytes released sperm under shaken versus calm conditions when male and female gametophytes were placed together. However, antheridial sperm release was equivalent when male gametophytes were exposed to undiluted media from dense cultures of mature female gametophytes under shaken versus calm conditions. These data suggest that water motion inhibited sperm release by diluting the sperm-releasing pheromone produced by ripe eggs below a threshold required to cause sperm release. Water motion stimulated both gamete and zoospore release from U. lactuca. This is the first report in an alga of stimulation of gamete release by increased water motion, but it is notable that parthenogenesis occurs in Ulva spp.; thus, gametes may develop into gametophytes (1 N) or parthenosporophytes (2 N). This study demonstrates that water motion has strong effects upon algal reproduction, but that the effects may vary between species, possibly due to their different life histories.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Effects of O2, pH and DIC on photosynthetic net-O2 evolution by marine macroalgae

Net photosynthetic O₂ evolution by five marine macroalgae:Ulva lactuca L.,Enteromorpha sp.,Ceramium strictum Harvey,Fucus serratus L., andF. vesiculosus L., collected from Danish waters in the summer of 1983 was followed at increasing O₂ and with pH either fixed close to pH 7, 8 or 9, or drifting upwards during photosynthesis in a closed chamber to determine the effects of changing O₂, pH and DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) on photosynthesis. Increasing O₂, increasing pH and decreasing DIC together limited O₂ evolution. Raising the O₂ concentration with pH and DIC held constant resulted in less inhibition of net-O₂ evolution than when all three factors acted together. The O₂ inhibition of photosynthesis was similar to the reported O₂ inhibition of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase isolated from lower and higher plants. Net-O₂ evolution as a function of the molar ratio of O₂ to HCO^– ₃ + CO₂ in solution provided a general, linear relationship (r ² = 0.72 to 0.84), predicting inhibition of photosynthesis based on O₂ pH and DIC changing together. Slopes of this relationship, representing competition between O₂ and carbon based on external concentrations, were similar for the five taxonomically different algae, suggesting that similar processes act to reduce net-O₂ evolution.     

Development of the IM147: an alternative inspection/maintenance mass-emission transient test to address vehicle preconditioning concerns

A series of studies was performed to develop an alternative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's gold standard IM240 mass-based emission test. The new IM147 test was based on the second phase of the IM240 that consists of 147 sec of transient vehicle operation. Paired IM240/IM147 tests were conducted on vehicles ranging from 1981 to 1996 to determine IM147 cutpoints and excess emissions were identified. Additionally, an optimized test procedure was developed that combined possible triplicate IM147s with improved drive trace quality control, fast-pass, and retest methods. The optimized procedure was found to provide improved vehicle preconditioning with a relatively minor decrease in excess emissions identification. Resulting identification rates ranged from 96 to 100% for hydrocarbons (HC), 93-100% for CO, and 93-100% for NOx, depending on cutpoint selection, while false failures caused by lack of vehicle preconditioning were reduced to essentially zero. Significant vehicle throughput improvements were achieved through the development of software algorithms involving modal fast-pass and retest procedures. Modal drive trace variation limits also were developed to improve test accuracy. The combination of the algorithms reduced average IM147 test times by nearly 60%.     

Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in coastal Oregon.

Forest biodiversity policies in multi-ownership landscapes are typically developed in an uncoordinated fashion with little consideration of their interactions or possible unintended cumulative effects. We conducted an assessment of some of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of recently enacted forest management policies in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. This mountainous area of conifer and hardwood forests includes a mosaic of landowners with a wide range of goals, from wilderness protection to high-yield timber production. We projected forest changes over 100 years in response to logging and development using models that integrate land use change and forest stand and landscape processes. We then assessed responses to those management activities using GIS models of stand structure and composition, landscape structure, habitat models for focal terrestrial and aquatic species, timber production, employment, and willingness to pay for biodiversity protection. Many of the potential outcomes of recently enacted policies are consistent with intended goals. For example, we project the area of structurally diverse older conifer forest and habitat for late successional wildlife species to strongly increase. 'Other outcomes might not be consistent with current policies: for example, hardwoods and vegetation diversity strongly decline within and across owners. Some elements of biodiversity, including streams with high potential habitat for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and sites of potential oak woodland, occur predominately outside federal lands and thus were not affected by the strongest biodiversity policies. Except for federal lands, biodiversity policies were not generally characterized in sufficient detail to provide clear benchmarks against which to measure the progress or success. We conclude that land management institutions and policies are not well configured to deal effectively with ecological issues that span broad spatial and temporal scales and that alternative policies could be constructed that more effectively provide for a mix of forest values from this region.